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Canada Braces for Surge in Asylum Claims as Trump’s Crackdown Looms

As the United States sharpens its immigration policies under the renewed leadership of President Donald Trump, Canada finds itself on the edge of a humanitarian crisis. Fearing imminent deportation, migrants across the U.S. are heading north in growing numbers, prompting serious concerns about Canada’s preparedness to respond.

From Quebec’s thick forests to policymakers' offices in Ottawa, the ripple effects of Trump’s hardline stance are being felt in real time. With hundreds of thousands of U.S. residents facing the loss of Temporary Protected Status (TPS), the rush to seek safety in Canada has already begun—and it could escalate rapidly.

Trump’s Deportation Plans Spark Fear

Since his re-election in November 2024, President Trump has doubled down on promises of mass deportations. Over 1.6 million undocumented immigrants are currently facing the loss of TPS—532,000 of them as soon as April 24, 2025. Additional waves are expected to follow, affecting hundreds of thousands from Venezuela, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Cuba.

“They’re coming for us,” said Marie Jean-Louis, a Haitian mother of two who crossed into Quebec last week. “ICE is everywhere. I couldn’t wait to be caught.”

With Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) stepping up raids across the U.S., the Canadian border has emerged as a lifeline for many.

Quebec Border Facing Heavy Pressure

The Saint-Bernard-de-Lacolle crossing in Quebec is already witnessing a sharp increase in asylum claims. In March 2025 alone, 1,356 claims were filed at this point—signaling a potential resurgence of migration patterns not seen since 2017.

Nationwide, Canada recorded 5,246 asylum claims as of April 6—down from the same period last year, but experts warn this decline is deceptive. “It’s the calm before the storm,” said Montreal advocate Frantz André. “People are getting ready to leave now before they’re forcibly removed.”

Over the weekend, RCMP officers intercepted nine Haitian migrants, including children, crossing the border through dense woodland. Two Canadian citizens were also arrested for allegedly helping them, raising ethical questions about human smuggling and compassion.

Canada’s Refugee System Under Pressure

Canada’s refugee system is showing signs of strain. The Immigration and Refugee Board is currently dealing with a backlog of 250,000 cases, with average processing times nearing four years. Experts say the system could collapse if even a fraction of those losing TPS head north.

“If just 10% of the 1.6 million affected migrants come here, we’re looking at 163,000 new claims—more than triple what we handled in 2024,” said Dr. Jennifer Elrick of McGill University.

Shelters in Montreal are reaching capacity, and temporary facilities like the Olympic Stadium are once again being eyed as emergency accommodations.

A History of Refuge Meets a Modern Crisis

Canada has long held a reputation for welcoming refugees. After Trump’s first election in 2016, the now-shuttered Roxham Road crossing became a key entry point for asylum seekers. At its peak in 2017, more than 3,800 people were intercepted in just two weeks.

But with the expansion of the Safe Third Country Agreement in 2023, irregular land crossings declined. Now, as Trump’s new deportation measures loom, many believe migrants will once again turn to remote, treacherous routes—regardless of the risk.

“Roxham Road may be closed,” said Melissa Claisse of the Welcome Collective, “but people will find a way. And in springtime, with melting snow and rising rivers, those paths can be deadly.”

Political Response: Tensions Rise in Ottawa

The surge in asylum seekers is sparking political tension. Liberal leader Mark Carney has taken a firmer tone than his predecessor, declaring that under the Safe Third Country Agreement, “we can send them back—and that’s appropriate.”

Quebec Premier François Legault is calling for urgent federal support, warning that the province cannot manage a major influx alone. Meanwhile, opposition parties like the Bloc Québécois are demanding enhanced border security and a crackdown on human trafficking.

Some, including immigration lawyer Mitchell Goldberg, are calling for a temporary halt to asylum claims. “It’s not about closing our doors forever,” he said. “It’s about stabilizing the system before it breaks.”

Real Lives, Real Impact

Behind the political debate lie countless human stories. Jean-Pierre, a Venezuelan father, crossed into Quebec last month with his wife and young child. “When we heard TPS was ending, we knew we had to leave,” he said. “ICE was already in our neighborhood.”

They now await a hearing that could take years.

Carole Wembert, a Haitian woman who fled Florida in 2017, described the same fear that is resurfacing today. “The president doesn’t want immigrants,” she said then. Her words remain chillingly relevant in 2025.

What Lies Ahead

As the April 24 deadline approaches, Canada is bracing for a wave that could define its immigration policy for years to come. Community groups, government agencies, and ordinary citizens must now decide: Will Canada rise to meet the challenge—or falter under the weight?

The eyes of the world are watching. For migrants like Marie and Jean-Pierre, the stakes could not be higher.

What are your thoughts on Canada’s role in this growing crisis? Share your views and follow Immigration News Canada for more updates as this urgent situation unfolds.

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